The first in a series of projections for the Pac-12 race in 2016-17. I’ll have a revised version late next month, after the early-entry process settles, and then a final version prior to next season.
On first glance, the league’s shape should change: More vertical, less horizontal. More elite teams, not as much quality depth.
Put another way: The Pac-12 could have more high seeds in the NCAA Tournament — more top-four seeds — but fewer overall bids. (The seven it received to the ’16 tournament were a record. We won’t discuss what happened when those seven teams took the floor.)
UCLA and Colorado should be better next season; Cal, Utah and Washington should be worse.
Arizona could become elite again; Oregon could return to reality.
(The Ducks are fresh off the first No. 1 seed in school history; anything less is reality.)
For a handful of teams, including Stanford and USC, the future is murky until May 25, the deadline for prospects to withdrawal from the draft.
For a handful of coaches, the seat is hot-hot-hot from now through March.
Here we go …
12 Washington State (9-22/1-17/12th): Coach Ernie Kent’s roster overhaul continues — and will so for another year or two. Despite the departure of big man Valentine Izundu, the Cougars should increase their conference win total by two or three games. Josh Hawkinson and Ike Iroegbu provide a nice foundation.
11. Arizona State (15-17/5-13/11th): Bobby Hurley’s second year looks more promising than the first, partly because guard Tra Holder (14.2 points per game) is back for another year and partly because Buffalo transfer Shannon Evans will provide instant help in the backcourt. Whether the Sun Devils can make significant progress in the standings is another matter.
10. Washington (19-15/9-9/T6th): Andrew Andrews (gone), Dejounte Murray (gone) and Marquese Chriss (gone) combined for 50 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists. Incoming guard Markelle Fultz, from famed DeMatha Catholic, is special. He’ll need to be extra special to keep the Huskies out of the league’s bottom tier and keep coach Lorenzo Romar off the scalding seat.
9: Cal (23-11/12-6/T3rd). Radio silence thus far from freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, but we’ll assume both players are headed to the NBA and revise Cal’s projection next month if needed. (My view: surprised if Rabb returns, close to shocked if Brown comes back.) The Bears also lose point guard/playmaker Tyrone Wallace, which shifts the scoring pressure to Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird. Difficult to envision a scenario in which the Bears don’t take a sizable step back.
8. Stanford (15-15/8-10/9th): The major personnel question involves all-conference forward Rosco Allen. For the moment, we’ll assume Allen withdrawals from the draft and returns for his senior year. Everyone else is back for new coach Jerod Haase, whose charge is to maximize the talent — the Cardinal has underachieved for many years — and make the program relevant again. Look for instant improvement in some areas, but only modest climb up the standings.
7. USC (21-13/9-9/T6th): Plenty of roster turnover, but the big question is Julian Jacobs, who’s testing the draft waters. Jordan McLaughlin, Nikola Jovanovic and Bennie Boatright are expected to return, and Louisville transfer Shaqquan Aaron is eligible. So the pieces are in place for the Trojans to continue their upward trajectory. But for all the improvement in 2015-16, remember: USC finished five games off the pace and faltered down the stretch — there’s still a long way to go for coach Andy Enfield.
6. Oregon State (19-13/9-9/T6th): Will the departure of a star player name Payton spark another quarter-century-long NCAA Tournament drought? Probably not. Wayne Tinkle is a terrific coach who has recruited well – well enough that GPII’s absence should not force a major re-calibration. Tres Tinkle and Stephen Thompson, who combined for 24 ppg, form a solid foundation. Whether the Beavers contend for a top-level finish depends on the supporting cast.
5. Utah (27-9/13-5/2nd): Even with Larry Krystkowiak’s wizardry, the Utes seem destined for a pullback without Brandon Taylor, Jordan Loveridge and Jakob Poeltl. Don’t expect major slippage with Kyle Kuzma and Lorenzo Bonam returning, but the lineup looks more middle-of-the-Pac than upper echelon. That would all change if Poeltl returns. (He hasn’t declared, yet.) With the big fella in the lineup, the Utes would probably be No. 3 in these projections.
4. Colorado (22-12/10-8/5th): The departure of all-conference big man Josh Scott provides an easy excuse to dismiss the Buffs’ prospects for next season. The reality could be much different. The bulk of the rotation returns, including George King and Josh Fortune, who combined for 24 ppg points last season. Add transfer guard Derrick White, and coach Tad Boyle has more than enough talent to take advantage of backsliding by other programs — Cal and Utah, to name two – and contend for a top-tier finish.
3. UCLA (15-17/6-12/10th): Nowhere to go but up for the Bruins and coach Steve Alford. Okay, that’s not entirely true. But it’s difficult to envision another 10th-place finish with UCLA’s personnel, which should include Aaron Holiday, Isaac Hamilton, Thomas Welch and freshman Lonzo Ball. The Hotline checked with its most-trusted scouting sources to determine whether Ball is as good as billed by the UCLA hoops hype machine. The consensus: As good, if not better. Alford’s future might depend on it.
2. Arizona (25-9/12-6/T3rd): Gabe York, Ryan Anderson and Kaleb Tarczewski and their 41 ppg and 23 rpg per game are gone. Yet it’s entirely possible that the Wildcats will be better than they were in 2015-16, based on the combination of a returning Allonzo Trier, a healthy Ray Smith and a recruiting class that stands as one of the best in school history. The Wildcats didn’t scare anyone this season. Don’t be surprised if the fear returns in ’17. (Better-than-decent chance Arizona is No. 1 in the revised projections next month.)
1. Oregon (31-7/14-4/1st): Tough to pick against the defending champs so long as the trio of Dillon Brooks, Tyler Dorsey and Chris Boucher return – with Dana Altman coaching them, of course. (The recruiting class is one of the Ducks’ best, with three 4-star prospects.) But will the trio return? Boucher seems a certainty, with Brooks slightly less so. Based on his comments, Dorsey is in the draft exploration phase. And, of course, there’s always the chance Altman will add an impact transfer we’ve never heard of.
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